Technology can exist for a while before a mass consumer use is found for it.
By far the question we get asked the most is, “What coin or token is going to be the next Bitcoin?”
To answer this question, it’s an advantage to keep it simple and start with this — “What problem does this coin or token solve?”
And it’s much easier if you know how your money has been manipulated and devalued in the past. And ask, “Is Bitcoin a store of value and a democratic vehicle to protect your wealth from government shenanigans, or is Bitcoin a currency?”
Most people new to cryptocurrencies quickly get lost in the minutiae. They start by looking at the fine print and details, and get confused and frustrated by the terminology.
But what if there was a much more effective way?
By asking why Bitcoin was released in 2009 and why, in 2018, the perfect storm is developing that could be the catalyst for the mass adoption of blockchain technology, the task of filtering out which coins and tokens have a real shot at becoming another Bitcoin is just that little bit easier.
Why, in late 2017, did governments around the world scramble to stop the outflow of money into cryptocurrencies?
We discuss the (sometimes underhand) tactics the authorities used to slow down the movement of fiat currency into cryptocurrencies.
And ask, “Is Bitcoin still the kingmaker?”
We look at how Bitcoin prices have performed in the past and why understanding Bitcoin’s price movement is an effective way to track the entire cryptocurrency space.
Cryptocurrency Supply and Demand 101: How to use the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin to figure out what is going on in the cryptocurrency market.
As Bitcoin prices hit new lows, we ask, “Why is the Bitcoin hash rate at all time highs?”
We discuss how to use the direct market feedback left behind by the big money behind Bitcoin, and we ask, “Why does it matter?”
Why, whenever you buy a property, invest in cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, or even when taking a bet on a sporting event, you expose yourself to built-in biases and behaviour patterns.
These biases are well known and regularly manipulated by those in the know.
We ask, “Is being part of the crowd a good idea when it comes to investing, including cryptocurrencies, and how to know you’re part of the crowd.
We discuss how prices move, the signatures professional (whales) leave behind, and how an understanding of this can help you break free from the puppet masters.
Prices move through cycles of supply and demand as if they’re controlled by a hidden hand. And cryptocurrencies are no different.
This Gordon Gekko quote from Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps— “Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs? They Get Slaughtered”,
perfectly describes how the system works. The public buys at highs and sells at lows. Like clockwork.
We ask, “Why does the investing public do the wrong thing at the wrong time?
And we look back in time to see what can happen when everyone agrees the only way is up and the good times will last forever.
It’s another busy morning, and the usual scramble to get to work. So far you’ve avoided taking a look. At your desk, you take a deep breath and click the link. It’s up again, this time a lot.
You sit there wondering why you didn’t do it. Why didn’t you buy it? You knew it was going up. Images flash before your eyes— the holiday, the car, six months pay. All you had to do was send the cash to the exchange and click the link.
“Next time it goes down, I’ll buy,” you say to yourself as you settle in for the day. “Next time.”
Twenty-four hours later you’re hovering over the link. Click.
It’s up again. And it hurts.
FOMO has you.
What do the most successful blackjack players, poker players, financial market and cryptocurrency participants, from hedge funds to successful home-based traders have in common?
The training provided by exchanges and brokers is good quality, and the trading platforms are impressive. Flashing lights, constantly changing prices, indicators, and news. Wow! How can you lose? Yet most do.
Why do the people who know what they are doing live the life you want, and what do they know that you don’t?
Mr. H. Sapien Esq. is a pattern recogniser. We see patterns everywhere. In our caveman days, we’d be aware of moments of sudden and unexpected quiet, tall grass shifting with the wind, and subtle changes of shade.
A change of light, a snap of a twig, and our pattern recognition software would trigger our fight or flight mechanism. Our sensitivity to pattern changes of light and vibration helped us survive.
The problem in the modern world is knowing when our inbuilt pattern recognition software is being manipulated.
The reason understanding an edge is so important is because when you go through guaranteed periods of losses,(and you will), you know, because of your understanding of the expectancy of your edge, what is normal compared to what is not normal behaviour.
And understanding the expectancy of your edge is your antidote to the built-in biases and emotions that act against you in any form of speculation.
The first step to generating consistent returns is using a strategy with a positive expectancy. But this is not enough unless you understand how expectancy actually works.
And the clue to the complete understanding of expectancy is in the simple formula. And it’s the term — “Average.”
Expectancy is the mean average of your returns. Nothing more, nothing less.
Imagine walking into your bosses office with a great idea. You’ve figured out a game plan. It’s simple, it’s ingenious, and it’s yours.
In your mind you see the recognition, you see co-workers clapping as you walk proudly on to the stage. Arms raised above your head, and the crowd goes wild…
You’re wrenched out of your dream.
He looks up and points at the chair, “I’m busy, you’ve got 2 minutes.”
Giddy with excitement you sit down and deliver the pitch.
Your boss listens, then a pause.
Stone-faced and eyeball to eyeball, “Give me three good reasons.” His voice is monotone.
And this is where you start to unravel.
If you’re going to strap yourself into a flying bullet that has the potential to destroy your savings (and more), you’re going to have to trust the knowledge you’re using when you put your capital at risk.
Trust comes from being able to ask the right questions, trust comes from figuring out a plan and acting on it, and trust comes from understanding yourself and how you react to wins and losses.
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