Technology can exist for a while before a mass consumer use is found for it.
In mid-November 2018, Bitcoin and the top-ranked alt-coins are in sideways moves in a bear market.
Google the search term “crypto today,” and you’ll be served up the factoids and opinions on what’s driving the cryptocurrency market. Sometimes the news is useful, but most of the time it’s a reflection of the market price action. A move up, and the news is good, a move down and it’s bad.
Is there another way?
As Bitcoin goes under the hammer, is a major change in the cryptocurrency markets taking place?
When a cryptocurrency market breaks to the downside on huge volume (Bitcoin on 14th of November 2018 is such a day) and closes in the lower third of the day’s range, it can be used as a proxy for a supply and demand imbalance. Yes, you might be thinking that this is obvious, but, for the most consistent investors and speculators, it’s what happens next over the following days or weeks that’s most important.
For cryptocurrencies to replace cash does anything have to change?
Innovator and early majority types might be rolling their eyes, thinking that investing in cryptocurrencies is easy, but if you take the time to ask, next time your socialising with friends, you’ll find that cryptocurrencies, for the majority of people, seems confusing and complicated.
As cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies travel along the hype curve, between the initial trigger and mass adoption, can things stay the same or does something have to change?
Is Bitcoin dead or just waiting for a catalyst?
When an authority figure, like a senior investment advisor from a leading investment bank, appears on TV and confidently tells you the reason why, in hindsight, a market has gone up or down, it’s not easy to ignore their advice. After all, they are the acknowledged authority, and they are supposed to be experts in their field.
With Bitcoin and the leading alt-coins hard down at the end of 2018, some establishment experts are confidently forecasting the future of Bitcoin, but how accurate is their analysis, and do they always get it right?
Crowd behaviour at highs and lows and what the 5% do instead when trading Cryptocurrencies.
As 2018 draws to a close, cryptocurrencies have been routed. But while the prices have been getting hit hard, one behaviour pattern is constant.
If you study the history of speculative markets, from Tulip mania in the 1630s to Bitcoin in 2017, you’ll find one common denominator. FOMO.
What advertising and market bubbles have in common
What advertising and market bubbles have in common
The public hears about a new technology. It’s everywhere. Every time they watch the news, every time they use Youtube, Twitter, or Facebook, everyone seems to be talking about this thing called Bitcoin — and yet they have a problem. They have no idea what it is.
In 1994, George Loewenstein, a behavioural economist at Carnegie Mellon University ran a series of experiments in an attempt to answer this question: What makes people interested?
Comparison of Industries: Automobile vs Cryptocurrency
It’s ten years since the genesis block of Bitcoin was mined. Ten years after the mass-production of motor vehicles started in the 1890s, the majority of new startup companies were manufacturing steam-powered cars. If you could travel back in time and land in the United States in 1906, you wouldn’t find it so easy to figure out which technology would become dominant.
Indicator settings don’t influence trend direction.
The majority of traders and investors use technical indicators to time their trades, yet few take the time to understand the root cause of trending prices. Fewer still understand the strategies used by the 5%, the most consistent group of traders and speculators, as prices move between the lines.
Are cryptocurrencies immune from the Power Law?
In 1906, an Italian economist, Vilfredo Pareto discovered what is now known as the 80:20 rule, when he noticed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people. The power law is everywhere. 80% of the revenue from Hollywood is made by 20% of the movies. 80% of global internet traffic goes to 20% of the sites. The power law is at work in the cryptocurrency markets too — the only question is which coins will survive?
Cryptocurrency Trading: The majority look in the wrong place. They get in late, and out early.
As the public’s interest in the cryptocurrency market continues to dwindle, and as cryptocurrencies continue their inexorable slide towards to the trough of disillusionment, the 5%, the most consistent speculators and investors, aren’t reading comment and quote articles — they’re watching something else — supply and demand. Instead of ploughing through endless social media tweets and posts, sometimes great lessons can be found in popular culture.
Forget Past Indicators and Signals… Study the Trend Lifecycle Instead.
The inconvenient truth: Most people new to the world of speculation and trading start defining trends with indicators and signals from the past. They don’t take the time to learn why trends begin, how trends move through time, and how they end.
Technical analysis is often used to show how easy it is to be successful in hindsight; however, the reality, for most, is different when they attempt to use a TA system in real time.
The internet, comment and quote brigade have noticed Litecoin!
Since December 2018, Litecoin is outperforming Bitcoin, with headlines like “Cryptocurrency markets flying”, “Litecoin up 30%”, and Bitcoin surges 8%”, are articles like this a help or a hindrance?
Reading articles with this type of headline is like eating the wrong half of a large chocolate bar. The body releases hundreds of chemicals, neurotransmitters — chocolate opium. As you eat, endorphins trigger in the brain, increasing excitement and awareness. But, after the rush, is there a price to pay?
This alt-coin is attempting to disrupt the world’s most valuable business.
While companies like Google provide the access channels via Youtube, it’s easy to forget why the gatekeepers offer their services. Blinded by the opportunity, the masses are cropping and editing images, recording video and music, and uploading quotes and inspirational messages.
Meanwhile, the gatekeepers did something else. They built a machine.
In one end, the machine feeds, gorges, on dollars, billions and billions of dollars. The creative’s dollars. At the other, it creates data. Exabytes and exabytes of data.
Can a cryptocurrency disrupt the gatekeeper’s business model?
Losing cryptocurrency traders do the same things in all conditions. Winning traders don’t.
The main difference between successful speculators, the 5%, and the majority, is how they approach speculation and investment. The 95% attempt to pick lows in a downtrend and highs in an uptrend. The 5% know this is the road to the poorhouse, and they approach speculation and investing, from real estate to cryptocurrency — and everything in between, as a business.
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